A Case of Do or Die
Exterior. Night. A foggy airfield.
Mike Bloomberg gets out of a car, followed closely by John McCain, right hand in the pocket of his trench coat.
Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin emerge from the rear of the car. A campaign aide escorts Huckabee in the direction of an airplane. McCain takes letters of transit and ballot submission forms from his pocket, handing them to Bloomberg, who turns and walks towards the hanger. MCCAIN: If you don't mind, you fill in the names. That will make it even more official.
BLOOMBERG: You think of everything, don't you?
MCCAIN: The names are Governors Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin.
Bloomberg stops dead in his tracks, and turns around. Both he and Palin look at McCain with astonishment. PALIN: But why my name, John?
MCCAIN: Because you're getting on that plane.
PALIN: I don't understand, what about you?
MCCAIN: I'm staying here with him 'til the campaign is safely won.
McCain's intention suddenly dawns on Palin. PALIN: No, John, no. What has happened to you? At the convention we said -
MCCAIN: At the convention we said a great many things. You said I was to do the thinking for both of us. Well, I've done a lot of it since then and it all adds up to one thing. You're getting on that plane with Huckabee where you belong.
PALIN: But John, no, I, I -
MCCAIN: You've got to listen to me. Do you have any idea what you'd have to look forward to if you stayed here? Nine chances out of ten we'd lose, our careers would be dead, and your daughter would be a national joke along with the economy. Isn't that true, Mike?
BLOOMBERG: I'm afraid that the situation will insist.
PALIN: You're saying this only to make me go.
MCCAIN: I'm saying it because it's true. Inside of us both you belong with Huckabee. You're a part of his strain of conservatism, the thing that keeps it going. Besides, you really should have gone for Ted Stevens's Senate seat, if you want to reform things. You've got a good heart and the right intentions, but you're not ready for the national stage. If that plane leaves the ground and you're not with him, you'll regret it.
PALIN: No.
MCCAIN: Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and no later than November fourth.
PALIN: But what about us?
MCCAIN: We'll always have St. Paul. We didn't have, we'd lost it, until you didn't trip over yourself against Biden. We got it back last night.
PALIN: And I said I would never leave you, and the American people, also.
MCCAIN: And you never will. But I've got a job to do, too, my friends. Where I'm going you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of. Sarah, I'm pretty good at being noble, and it doesn't take much to see that the problems of this campaign amount to a rice paddy full of beans in this crazy world. It's a dangerous time, and frankly you aren't ready. Someday you'll understand that. Now, now...
Palin opens her mouth, searching for the proper words, finding none. McCain puts his hand to her chin and raises her face to meet his own. MCCAIN: Here's looking at you, kid.
Huckabee returns, escorting Palin to the plane, but not before turning to the Arizona Senator. HUCKABEE: Welcome back to the fight. Now I know our side will win.
Bloomberg and McCain are left alone.
BLOOMBERG: Well I was right. You aren't a social conservative.
MCCAIN: I don't know what you're talking about.
BLOOMBERG: I suppose you know this isn't going to be pleasant for either of us, especially for you. You still know nothing about economics; I'll have to say so.
MCCAIN: As soon as the plane goes, Mike.
Suddenly a speeding car comes to a stop outside the hanger. Chief McCain advisors Steve Schmidt, a Karl Rove protégé, and Charlie Black, who noted that a terrorist attack would help the campaign, emerge. SCHMIDT: What is the meaning of this? Why don't you stop her?
BLOOMBERG: Ask the Senator.
MCCAIN: She's out. I was willing to kick her off the campaign, and I'm willing to do the same to the both of you.
Black runs towards a run to recall the plane. McCain shoots quickly at him and Schmidt, and both crumple to the ground, ending their time on the campaign, and letting McCain be McCain. A member of the press runs up. REPORTER: Senator!
BLOOMBERG: Sarah Palin's been removed from the ticket.
REPORTER: But who will replace her?
Bloomberg pauses and looks at McCain, who returns his gaze with the eyes of a maverick. BLOOMBERG: Round up the usual suspects. (The reporter leaves) Well, John, you're not only not serious about social conservatism, you've rediscovered your inner maverick.
MCCAIN: Maybe; it seemed like a good time to start.
BLOOMBERG: I think perhaps you're right.
Bloomberg rips up his attempt to rewrite New York City laws and run for a third term as mayor, dropping it into a trash basket which he then kicks over. He walks over and stands beside McCain as the plane takes off. BLOOMBERG: It might be a good idea to disappear from the campaign for a few days, with actual reason this time. I have a lot of experience with financial affairs, and I could be induced to arrange help.
MCCAIN: I could use some help. But it doesn't make any difference about Wall Street. We still need to get ourselves back on track.
BLOOMBERG: And I'm the guy who knows how to do it.
MCCAIN: You're the guy?
BLOOMBERG: Mmhmm.
MCCAIN: Mike, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful administration.
The two walk off together into the night. Fade out.
Some of you may be wondering whether we have eaten a bad batch of mushrooms and are having flashbacks from 'Nam. The truth of the matter is, we could not have found a better - or more necessary - course of action for John McCain to regain some semblance of legitimacy than to somehow convince Sarah Palin to go home to Alaska. (As for the Casablanca scene serving as the way to suggest such an action, that's because we tend to make both of the parties uncomfortable, and so we have to find other ways to amuse ourselves.)
Sarah Palin may be a fine governor. She may be good people. But everybody SHOULD now realize, or at least have reason to think they should, that she is no legitimate pick for Vice President of the United States of America. Anybody who is not simply a partisan bickerer must now see, as time has gone by, that she's neither a prudent nor a practical choice, as McCain is freefalling in the polls and Palin is acting more like a lead weight than a parachute.
Our bottom line is, for the sake of the presidential race and for the sake of the United States more generally, Senator McCain needs to drop Governor Palin from the ticket and replace her with Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York. Yes, socially conservative Republicans will not like it, but they'll get over it if they realize that this is a matter of saving the campaign; if they contrast a McCain/Bloomberg presidency with the possibility of an Obama/Biden administration. Indeed, even apart from that, everyone should realize that Reagan was the most unique of candidates who managed to entwine social, fiscal, and foreign policy conservatism in a single man. McCain, while an honorable man, is not one to embody the big tent, and the addition of Palin to the ticket, much like his earlier visit to Falwell's Liberty University, does not make him one.
Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek has recently argued that the addition of Palin to the ticket was "fundamentally irresponsible," and we find it hard to disagree, for everyone involved (surely she must not like being even more of a national joke than most politicians are, and must have realized that her daughter would be too.) Her incoherence in her television interviews aroused fears only somewhat aroused by her relative cogency in her debate with Biden. Nobody should deny that being a mother or fighting state corruption are hard and necessary things, but they may not be what these difficult times demand. We like Sarah Palin - indeed, the slightly more liberal of the two of us may like her more - but she does not belong on a national ticket. Not now, at least; we are quite serious when we suggest that Ted Stevens's Senate seat could be just the place for her, once she's through with the governor's mansion.
The move would also show that McCain truly puts the country first, by nominating somebody with real and relevant experience, and he would have that somebody with a great economic mind in Bloomberg. If McCain wants to be the maverick with sensible solutions, here's his chance. It's not just the same old story, it may be a fight for love and glory, and it's definitely, for his campaign if not for the country, a case of do or die.
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#1: 10/6/2008 at 8:03 a.m.
This was an awesomely written column. And even though I am a very socially conservative person, I'm tempted to agree with you -- if not about Michael Bloomberg as a desirable pick, then about Sarah Palin as not being up to snuff. (But then again, Obama's term in senate voting "present" doesn't inspire much confidence either).
Keep up the good writing and interesting perspective.
— Chris Green | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#2: 10/6/2008 at 8:06 a.m.
mushrooms don't give flashbacks, get your drugs straight. That's lsd you want.
I liked this column. Your first piece was a challenge to get all the way through, but I think you have really hit a clear and concise writing style here.
The second use of the word "aroused" in your line about her debate performance- is that a use of the word I don't know?
And lastly, Obama has Vlocker and Rubin as his econ policy advisors and they're pretty good. Bloomberg would probably be willing to work with either guy, and Schwarzenegger volunteered to be "energy czar" in an Obama administration. Also, this late in the game, if McCain dumped his running mate, it would basically kill his chances. Admitting to a major mistake this late in the game, with so many people excited about Palin, would confirm the narrative of him as erratic, and he would lose the whole base. He's probably going to lose anyway (I'm so excited I can barely sit), but even if he switched Palin out for Jesus himself, it would be a done deal for Obama.
— a junior | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#3: 10/6/2008 at 8:59 a.m.
You are absolutely insane if you think for one second that Social Conservatives will ever vote for Bloomberg, especially if he is teamed with McCain. The only reason Social Conservatives are donating and organizing behind McCain, is Sarah Palin.
I would be willing to bet just about anything, that if McCain were to dump Sarah Palin from the ticket, and did not pick up Mike Huckabee, this year's voter turnout would drop 10 million people, and that is after all the new Democrats voting for Obama.
Mark my words, the Social Conservatives are sick and tired of being paid "Lip Service" to. This year has proven the desire of the Republican Establishment to move away from Social Issues by propping up McCain, Romney, and Guiliani. The only candidates that will make a difference from this point forward for Social Conservatives are Huckabee, Palin, Jindal, and a small handful of others.
— Joseph | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#4: 10/6/2008 at 10:12 a.m.
well done, boys.
— Ally | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#5: 10/6/2008 at 10:19 a.m.
Cue the National Anthem and closing credits...
Nicely done! But Bloomberg is much too smart to attach himself to a ticket that is on very shaky ground. Even with McCain's precarious state of health, would you trade being mayor of New York right now for a possible Vice-Presidency? I bet he wouldn't.
— Laura Horowitz | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#6: 10/6/2008 at 11:31 a.m.
This reminded me of a Maureen Dowd column. You can take that as a complement or a critique.
Yes, Palin does not belong on the GOP ticket, but replacing her with Bloomberg would not improve McCain's chances this fall. If he took Palin off the ticket, McCain would basically be admitting to voters that her selection was a political stunt, and his ability to make wise presidential decisions would be put even more into jeopardy. Also, George McGovern switched running mates during his 1972 Presidential campaign, and after this move he never regained traction and lost in a landslide to Nixon. And I disagree with your assessment of social conservatives; Palin has re-energized many of them about the campaign, and they would feel backstabbed if she were replaced.
Finally, you never address whether Bloomberg would actually want to be part of this ticket. I doubt he would. He's currently trying to overturn established term-limit laws in order to run for a third term as NYC mayor, so I would think that he still wants that job for now, and he doesn't strike me as the type of politician who would want to be second in command to anyone. So like her or not, replacing Palin would be yet another hail mary pass for a campaign that has been running on a platform of gimmicks and stunts.
— R. | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#7: 10/6/2008 at 12:46 p.m.
Governor Huckabee is VERY ready to be president and would have been the very best choice McCain could have made for vp. He is VERY astute on issues of the economy, wisely against this bailout and even more wisely endorsing the Fair Tax, the single most fix for our economy over the long term. No one could ever question his executive experience because he has over a decade of PROVEN leadership experience. Though Palin HERSELF has more experience than Obama, to even imply that Palin and Huckabee are in the same league does your own ex-Governor a grave disservice. Huckabee is more qualified than all the others (Obama,Biden,McCain,Palin) put together. Stop drinking the democratic kool-aid.
— Linda | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#8: 10/6/2008 at 2:04 p.m.
To 'a junior' - I think he meant 'assuaged' not 'aroused'..
The article is an interesting thought experiment, and the obvious problems with it happening in reality have been duly noted above. The VP choice is Palin, like it or not. (not).
We shouldn't sip champagne yet though; if the economic crisis can account for a six point lead in national polls and significant shifts in battleground states in only a two week period, a similar foreign policy calamity could close the gap. Even worse - in more than one way - would be a terrorist scare of some sort (as noted by the author of the column). Another possibility is a symbolic economic victory, which will perhaps blunt Obama's progress in battlegrounds. Don't underestimate the potential of the DOW to make massive upswings in response to a rapidly changing policy environment. When stocks drop upwards of 9% in such a short period, many will be sitting on the edge of their seats looking for the cue to get back in the game (so as to not miss out on the potential to catch the wave and make a buck), DESPITE the long-term problems that will almost definitely plague the U.S. for the next several years.
Barring an 'October surprise' in McCain's favor, though, and presuming the economy continues to circle the drain, Obama's chances of victory are much better than the media seem to be indicating (the closer the race, the higher the ratings).
Based on several different electoral maps and all the latest polling data, if the election were to be held today Obama has to win only two of about 9 battleground states (if they are medium sized 8-10 electoral votes), and only ONE battleground if it is a big one (Ohio, Florida). When one 'randomizes' the winners of battlegrounds, therefore, Obama wins 9 times out of 10.
Every major 'macro' indicator is in favor of Obama - a terribly unpopular two term Republican, a struggling middle class, and broad demographic shifts toward more liberal values across the country. So lets just hold our breath and hope that the Democrats don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory come November.
— Vivaan | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#9: 10/6/2008 at 9:09 p.m.
Can't we all just for a second just imagine a Bloomberg presidency? How bipartisan, how pragmatic, how... just how competent it would be? Too bad he was too sane to be nominated by either party, and not self-deluded enough to run third party (God, Ralph Nader, you don’t understand! You used to have class. You used to be a contender. You used to be somebody, instead of a bum, which is what you are!) BTW Linda... even Gov. Palin is a better choice for president than Huckabee... at least she's a good governor, unlike the joke that Huckabee was. And guys, brilliant as usual.
— j | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#10: 10/7/2008 at 7:26 a.m.
"j
10.6.08 @ 09:10"
Huckabee wasn't a good Governor? He entered office with a deficit and left office with a surplus. Schools improved from 48th to 8th best. Roads went from worst to most improved according to Trucker magazine. After assuming office due to previous Governor's legal trouble, he was re-elected not once but twice. During primaries, received larger percentage of vote than any other candidate in their "home" state. Named as a Top 5 Governor. Was the only politician who actually did good things during Katrina by taking in over 75,000+ victims in an orderly and humane way. Huckabee actually saw and recognized the Economic Downturn back during the Michigan Debate, along with Ron Paul, when everyone else said it was hunky-dory. Hell, this list is endless. Stop drinking the Elitist Kool-Aid and do some research for yourself.
— Joseph | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#11: 10/7/2008 at 12:28 p.m.
I agree with you Joseph,
But I would add a couple things to that. He kept taxes low (tax growth was half the national average despite constant budgetary problems, he managed the budget and avoided burdening the taxpayer).
He reached out to minorities and they rewarded him with a 48% chunk of the vote.
And people trying to marginalize Palin are crazy, she is hardly an intellectual light weight. She would never have been taken seriously enough to be able to take out her own party establishment if she was anything less than whip smart and completely capable.
— chukmaty | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#12: 10/7/2008 at 12:39 p.m.
I'm reading this right now and there's a McCain-Palin ad at the top of the DG page that says "A Proven Maverick" with a picture of Palin. Just thought I'd share.
— Will | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#13: 10/7/2008 at 2:27 p.m.
If Palin is NOT an intellectual lightweight, who is??!
I don't think this even warrants argument...the idea that someone can't think of a single newspaper or magazine that they regularly read because they are 'annoyed' at the interviewer is ludicrous. The idea that someone can't put together a single coherent sentence or idea without extensive coaching because they "aren't good at public speaking" is old: that's what the Republicans used to say about Dubya. He is a real smart cookie - he just speaks like an idiot, looks like an idiot, and acts like an idiot. He doesn't READ per se, but that doesn't mean he is unintellectual: he is a good listener. We all know how that worked out...now the Republicans won't touch ole Dubbs with a ten-foot long pole.
COME ON. I refuse to believe that anyone with even basic education truly thinks Palin is 'completely capable' or 'smart.'
— Vivaan | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#14: 10/7/2008 at 4:59 p.m.
fivethirtyeight.com has it at 9:1 Obama right now.
— Seth | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#15: 10/7/2008 at 6:44 p.m.
The point about a switch revealing McCain as erratic is a good one. Were the GOP to make such a move, the hope would be that the campaign would portray McCain as a leader who can see when he's made a mistake; this could be a pretty refreshing change from the norm, especially after the past eight years. And to be fair, President Bush has on occasion been one to see when he's made a mistake - remember Harriet Miers?
We understand that our longing for a VP with economic credentials (and credibility) is probably asking for a bit too much, and by no means are we trying to dismiss or discredit social conservatives or their voting power. What we are saying is that Social Conservatives should be embarrassed and angry (and one of us is) that of all socially conservative candidates out there, the McCain camp chose Palin. Maybe she is brilliant as one of you as suggested, but she certainly doesn't display it. It's not the down-home speak that betrays her ignorance, but her inability to provide much more than slogans from McCain's website strung together with "also's" when tested in debate or in interviews.
That Huckabee is an appealing figure, we won't deny. Indeed, he is the best the social conservatives have to offer, at least as far as those on the national stage go. Especially, he seems to be of a newer brand who advertises their broader concerns, like Rick Warren, with the sort of social policy issues that are traditionally the purview of Catholicism getting a fair shake. There's a reason we made him the Victor Laszlo figure - he's appealing, but he's not the sort of man that Rick Blaine and John McCain are. The talent Ronald Reagan had was in bringing the different strains of conservatism together - neoconservatism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism - and uniting them in his own person. McCain, to be honest, doesn't map onto any of these that well, save perhaps for the first; his character is his appeal. (That these have a tendency to fall away on the campaign trail is deeply regrettable.)
Having Bloomberg on the ticket would offer an opportunity to remake the party in a different direction, which it seems to need at this point. A combination of a Western politician's independent streak with a Northeasterner's financial acumen is exactly what the GOP needs right now, at this moment, where the economy is what's on people's mind. And trading a third, illegal term as mayor for a chance to remake the Republican party and return it to coherence and success after the George W. Bush years strikes us as an easy choice.
Why is Obama so popular? Why did McCain re-emerge from the pack to regain the nomination that everyone thought was his coming into the process? They get that people don't want party hacks. Can they both be sanctimonious, overly congratulatory about their working across the aisle, about their being mavericks? Sure. That goes with the territory.
And, by the way, it would probably be good for the social conservative 'movement' as well; they're coming out the Dobson/Falwell/Robertson era, and likely could use a few years in the wilderness to rebuild themselves and articulate a vision. Huckabee, Rick Warren - these are the people who should be doing that, without question. But they're not the sort who fit on a ticket with John McCain. Putting them there - now that would be lip service.
— Dustin Trabert & Shaun Kelly | Unregistered, Swarthmore
#16: 10/11/2008 at 12:06 p.m.
I wholeheartedly agree. And it's time for a change; whether in party politics or in the minds and hearts of Americans. Why can't we go back to the wholesome goodness before the Bush years? When America was economically sound, happy and free? I miss that America. I almost can't remember what it was like.
— SAppiah | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#17: 10/11/2008 at 8:58 p.m.
Dude, Palin is so going to be president.
Because McCain is going to win. And he is not going to last long.
There was no wholesome goodness before Bush, mein Kapitan. It just looks wholesome in comparison. Even my idiotic ten year old self felt jaded.
Anyway, when Palin takes the throne, I'm going to flee to Denmark and spend the rest of my life as a recluse living in the fjords and refusing to speak to anyone, save for the small bit of kelp that decides to be my friend.
— Argos | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore
#18: 10/16/2008 at 5:29 p.m.
Mike Huckabee is the man who should be president. He has more sense than all these other candidates put together. It was Huckabee who talked of the problems with the middle class and the economy when all the other Republicans (except Paul) said all was well. Huckabee is the ONLY major candidate gutsy enough to endorse the Fair Tax, the single most thing to fix the economy for the long term. Huckabee spoke out againt the bailout he had the best platform for health care, education, immigration, had over a DECADE of executive experience and has strong leadership qualities. Go to youtube and listen to his speech at the RNC. It is the best I have ever heard.
— Huck4Life | Unregistered, Non-Swarthmore